The sun beats down on Jeddah’s King Abdullah Sports City Stadium as Indonesia’s Garuda steps onto the pitch for their opening AFC 2026 World Cup fourth-round qualifier against Saudi Arabia. In Group B, alongside heavyweights Saudi Arabia (FIFA ranking 58) and Iraq (ranking 59), the lowest-ranked team, at 118th, faces a daunting task. With only two matches in this single round-robin format—Saudi Arabia today at 10:15 AM PDT and Iraq on October 11 at 12:30 PM PDT—Indonesia needs a win and a draw to claim the group’s direct World Cup ticket to North America 2026. A second-place finish earns a fifth-round playoff shot, but the bottom team goes home empty-handed.
The odds are brutal. Indonesia’s chances of advancing feel like a long shot, but this is a team that thrives on defying expectations. A stunning 2-0 upset over Saudi Arabia in Jakarta last November, powered by Marselino Ferdinan’s brace, proved they can topple giants. Under coach Patrick Kluivert and fueled by PSSI president Erick Thohir’s reforms, Indonesia has transformed from minnows to dreamers. Can they pull off the impossible in Jeddah? Let’s break down their upset potential, from squad strengths to tactical keys, with their crucial matches front and center.
The Momentum: A Rising Force with a Chip on Their Shoulder
Indonesia’s third-round campaign was no fluke. In a group featuring powerhouses Japan and Australia, they secured a 1-0 win over Bahrain, a 2-2 draw against China, and a Saudi stunner, finishing fourth with 10 points. Even a 6-0 loss to Japan sharpened their edge, exposing gaps but honing their attack. Against Saudi Arabia, they’ve shown they can compete, drawing 1-1 in Jeddah last year. Iraq is a tougher historical foe—Indonesia’s last win was a 2000 friendly—but recent youth-level clashes hint at growing parity.
Kluivert has instilled belief: “We’ve beaten them before; we’re not here to make up numbers.” Fan fervor is electric, with social media buzzing about “Garuda in Jeddah” and calls for a miracle. That Saudi win still looms large, giving Indonesia a psychological edge. Their counter-attacking style—six of their third-round goals came from quick breaks—could exploit Saudi Arabia’s high-pressing game and Iraq’s direct approach in their upcoming clashes.
The Matches: Indonesia’s Make-or-Break Moments
Indonesia’s fourth-round fate hinges on two games, both at Jeddah’s Al Inma Bank Stadium:
- October 8: Indonesia vs. Saudi Arabia (10:15 AM PDT)
A rematch of last year’s upset. Saudi Arabia, smarting from that 2-0 loss, will lean on home advantage and a roaring crowd. Indonesia’s counter-attacking blueprint—absorb pressure, hit on the break—could repeat history if they stay clinical. - October 11: Iraq vs. Indonesia (12:30 PM PDT)
A tougher test. Iraq’s physical, direct style under coach Graham Arnold demands defensive solidity. Indonesia’s set-piece prowess (two third-round goals from dead balls) could be the difference, but fatigue from the quick turnaround looms.
The Squad: Kluivert’s Blend of Grit and Flair
Kluivert’s 4-2-3-1 formation is built for speed and flexibility, leaning on a mix of Europe-based stars and domestic stalwarts. Despite Marselino Ferdinan’s injury, the 26-man squad is loaded with potential.
Strengths:
- Attack: Pace and Width
Ole Romeny (Oxford United) and Miliano Jonathans (FC Utrecht) bring European polish, while Ragnar Oratmangoen (FCV Dender) adds bite. Egy Maulana Vikri sparks creativity, and wingers Yance and Yakob Sayuri can stretch defenses. Indonesia’s 40% conversion rate on flank chances could punish Saudi Arabia’s full-backs on October 8. - Midfield: Press and Power
Captain Marc Klok (Persib Bandung) anchors, with Thom Haye (Heerenveen loanee) controlling tempo. Nathan Tjoe-A-On (Willem II) and Joey Pelupessy (Lommel SK) press relentlessly, averaging 12 recoveries per game. They’ll aim to disrupt Saudi’s Salem Al-Dawsari on October 8 and Iraq’s midfield engines three days later. - Defense: Resilient Core
Center-backs Rizky Ridho and Jordi Amat win 65% of aerial duels, backed by Justin Hubner’s depth. Full-backs Shayne Pattynama and Calvin Verdonk (Lille) overlap with intent. Goalkeeper Maarten Paes (FC Dallas) is a wall, though an injury could thrust Ernando Ari into the spotlight—a risk against Saudi Arabia’s 11 third-round goals.
Weaknesses:
- Inconsistency and Absences
Romney’s uneven form and Ferdinand’s absence hurt creativity. The squad’s youth (average age 25.4) brings energy but risks fading in Jeddah’s heat, especially with only four days between their matches. - Away Struggles
Indonesia’s third-round away record—1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses—spells trouble. Jeddah’s 80,000-strong crowd and Saudi Arabia’s extra prep time (their league is paused) tilt the scales for today’s opener.
| Category | Strength | Key Metric (Third Round) |
|---|---|---|
| Attack | Counter-speed | 6 goals from transitions (40% conversion) |
| Midfield | Pressing intensity | 12 recoveries/game |
| Defense | Aerial duels | 65% won by Ridho/Amat duo |
| Set Pieces | Delivery accuracy | 2 goals from corners/free-kicks |
Tactical Keys: Outsmarting Giants in a Lion’s Den
Kluivert’s Ajax-inspired game plan—high press, rapid switches—suits Indonesia’s roster. For today’s Saudi clash, sit deep in a 4-4-2 mid-block for the first 15 minutes, then pounce on turnovers with Jonathan’s pace. Target Salem Al-Dawsari’s defensive lapses for flank switches; three of Indonesia’s goals came from such moves. Against Iraq on October 11, man-mark their playmaker and exploit set pieces—Iraq leaked 30% of goals from dead balls.
Saudi Arabia’s six-day rest before their second game gives them an edge, but Indonesia’s “us vs. the world” mentality—stoked by the controversial Jeddah venue choice—could ignite them. “We’re playing in their backyard, but it’s fuel,” a player reportedly said. A compact shape, disciplined pressing, and clinical finishing are non-negotiable across both matches.https://www.thejakartapost.com/
External Factors: Venue Drama and National Fever
The AFC’s choice of Jeddah as Group B’s “neutral” venue, with Saudi Arabia competing, has sparked outrage. Indonesia and Iraq argued it hands the hosts an edge—familiar turf, no travel fatigue, and a paused domestic league. Yet, this fuels Indonesia’s underdog fire, with fans rallying online for a historic push. Referees (Kuwaiti for Saudi, Chinese for Iraq) seem impartial, and despite a brief PSSI data breach distraction in August, the camp is laser-focused for these two games.
Upset Scenarios: From Dream to Reality
- Direct Qualification (6 pts): Stun Saudi 1-0 today (Oratmangoen counter), edge Iraq 2-1 on October 11 (set-piece clincher). A 15-20% shot, but their Saudi win proves it’s possible if they catch a break.
- Playoff Path (3-4 pts): Draw Saudi 1-1 today (mirroring last year’s Jeddah grit), beat Iraq 2-0. Sneaks second on goal difference.
- Elimination (0 pts): Back-to-back losses—most likely if fatigue and Saudi’s home edge overwhelm.
Indonesia’s upset potential is real but fragile. They’ve evolved from pushovers to spoilers, with a squad blending European polish and domestic heart. As the whistle blows at 10:15 AM PDT today, Kluivert’s mantra—“Underdogs don’t dream; we plan”—sets the tone. A draw against Saudi would rock Asia; a win would be seismic. Catch both matches live on FIFA+ or Al Jazeera. Will Garuda soar or crash? The world’s watching.https://theinfohatch.com/salah-fpl-strategy-gameweek-8-2025/